Current Business sales and the business climate in Victoria

Despite the recent media’s doom and gloom predictions such as:

·         The Australian — “Small business insolvencies hit record numbers as industry calls for policy reset”

·         The Australian Financial Review — “Victoria ranked worst place in the nation to do business. Again.”

·         ABC News — “Surging $69b online shopping market puts small family business legacies at risk”

There is some evidence of ‘light at the end of the tunnel.’

The Good News

In 2025, Victoria’s business-for-sale market softened early but picked up later in the year, with asking prices rising about 8 % from March to December and a moderate increase in listings — indicating somewhat improving confidence among sellers and buyers.

There is also evidence of a reasonably deep, liquid market with good choice — especially for small service, retail and hospitality businesses. And prices remain more accessible than some other states, particularly Queensland and NSW.

Currently, there are over 4,200 businesses listed for sale in Victoria, with a combined advertised value of approx. $2.48 billion. Listings cover a diversity of sectors and regional/local markets. Average asking prices approximate $589,000, which is below the national average, making Victoria comparatively more affordable for buyers.

The Not so Good News

Across Australia, business insolvencies spiked sharply in recent years, with small enterprises hit hardest; one report cites a 33 % rise in insolvencies in the 2025 financial year to record levels, particularly among businesses with 1–4 employees.

Multiple analyses and reports highlight that Victoria has seen high business exit rates, with tens of thousands of businesses closing in recent years and slower overall growth in operating business counts compared with other states.

While listings are active, structural pressures — such as cost of living, rising operating costs, and competitive pressures from online commerce — have increased closures, especially in retail and hospitality.

Victoria has been ranked poorly in national comparisons for ease of doing business, with high regulatory costs and taxes cited as sticking points — this can deter investment or sales.

Looking Forward

·         Australia’s broader economy is showing mixed signals: economic recovery debates continue, and monetary policy impacts business confidence.

·         Cushman & Wakefield notes ‘clarity from recent rate changes contributing to steadier conditions for investment decisions.’

·         The Victorian government points to ongoing growth in business investment and labour markets, and policies intended to support businesses, such as payroll tax adjustments.

·         Business sales and transactions are shaped by a mix of growth support and caution from regulatory challenges — some sectors are bullish, some constrained.

·         Retail sales and investment show resilience, with increasing consumer spending and solid demand for retail assets in late 2025.

·         National commercial property transactions grew strongly — but Victoria’s share declined modestly, indicating some relative softness in large commercial deals.